Like the battle of Waterloo, the battle for Scotland was a damn close-run thing. The effects of Thursday’s no vote are enormous – though not as massive as the consequences of a yes would have been.
The vote against independence means, above all, that the 307-year Union survives. It therefore means that the UK remains a G7 economic power and a member of the UN security council. It means Scotland will get more devolution. It means David Cameron will not be forced out. It means any Ed Miliband-led government elected next May has the chance to serve a full term, not find itself without a majority in 2016, when the Scots would have left. It means the pollsters got it right, Madrid will sleep a little more easily, and it means the banks will open on Friday morning as usual.
But the battlefield is still full of resonant lessons. The win, though close, was decisive. It looks like a 54%-46% or thereabouts. That’s not as good as it looked like being a couple of months ago. But it’s a lot more decisive than the recent polls had hinted. Second, it was women who saved the union. In the polls, men were decisively in favour of yes. The yes campaign was in some sense a guy thing. Men wanted to make a break with the Scotland they inhabit. Women didn’t. Third, this was to a significant degree a class vote too. Richer Scotland stuck with the union — so no did very well in a lot of traditonal SNP areas. Poorer Scotland, Labour Scotland, slipped towards yes, handing Glasgow, Dundee and North Lanarkshire to the independence camp. Gordon Brown stopped the slippage from becoming a rout, perhaps, but the questions for Labour — and for left politics more broadly — are profound.
For Scots, the no vote means relief for some, despair for others, both on the grand scale. For those who dreamed that a yes vote would take Scots on a journey to a land of milk, oil and honey, the mood this morning will be grim. Something that thousands of Scots wanted to be wonderful or merely just to witness has disappeared. The anticlimax will be cruel and crushing. For others, the majority, there will be thankfulness above all but uneasiness too. Thursday’s vote exposed a Scotland divided down the middle and against itself. Healing that hurt will not be easy or quick. It’s time to put away all flags.
The immediate political question now suddenly moves to London. Gordon Brown promised last week that work will start on Friday on drawing up the terms of a new devolution settlement. That may be a promise too far after the red-eyed adrenalin-pumping exhaustion of the past few days. But the deal needs to be on the table by the end of next month. It will not be easy to reconcile all the interests – Scots, English, Welsh, Northern Irish and local. But it is an epochal opportunity. The plan, like the banks, is too big to fail.
Alex Salmond and the SNP are not going anywhere. They will still govern Scotland until 2016. There will be speculation about Salmond’s position, and the SNP will need to decide whether to run in 2016 on a second referendum pledge. More immediately, the SNP will have to decide whether to go all-out win to more Westminster seats in the 2015 general election, in order to hold the next government’s feet to the fire over the promised devo-max settlement. Independence campaigners will feel gutted this morning. But they came within a whisker of ending the United Kingdom on Thursday. One day, perhaps soon, they will surely be back.
(Artículo de Martin Kettle, publicado en "The Guardian" el 19 de septiembre de 2014)
6 comentarios:
Este assunto resulta muy serio, pero habla bien de las entidades locales dispuestas a respetar el derecho de acceso.
A ver cuándo os vais a enterar de con quien os la estáis jugando... que no valen cartas, cartitas, escritos y más escritos por muy bien argumentados que estén... aquí o se va a por todas o esta es la respuesta del poder (que no se anda con amagos e impugna todo lo que se le pone por delante...) eso para que luego tengáis remilgos a la hora de solicitar anulaciones de procesos mal hechos, repletos de irregularidades (cuando no de ilegalidades...) ¿no se ampara también así la corrupción? ¿Se tiene miedo? ¿Es por falta de seguridad...? A la luz de los argumentos no debería ser así, no?... Ala pues, a seguir escribiendo...
El concurso de Jefaturas de Negociado convocado por el Gobierno de Aragón también tiene su gran dosis de discrecionalidad, con una valoración de méritos que se contradicen entre ellas e incluso dentro de cada Comisión de valoración, por cierto que son doce, doce criterios diferentes. ¿A quién beneficia este caos interno en Función Pública? ¿A quién perjudica?
Entre castas anda el juego...
QUÉ EL SR. QUE HA ESCRITO QUE AQUÍ O SE VA A POR TODAS O ESTA ES LA RESPUESTA DEL PODER.... , ME DIGA COMO SE HACE Y SI ÉL LO ESTÁ HACIENDO Y COMO LE VA .GRACIAS POR SU COLABORACIÓN.EL PRESIDENTE DE LA ASOCIACIÓN. JULIO GUIRAL
¿Qué puede hacer un humilde interino opositor que siente como le han tomado el pelo durante este último año?. Por cierto, ya que la asociación persigue la transparencia... (y también la honrada y pulcra actuación de los servidores públicos funcionarios...) ¿Qué haría si, por poner un caso hipotético, se entera de que el/la presidente/a de un tribunal resulta que tiene una academia de preparación para esa misma especialidad???.... Por supuesto se trata de casos hipotéticos... ¿o quizás no?... Qué difícil debe resultar en este estado de cosas... luchar y defender la honradez y la honestidad desde dentro... aunque bastante más difícil es (lo crean o no) luchar desde fuera...
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