Like the battle of Waterloo, the battle for Scotland was a damn close-run thing. The effects of Thursday’s no vote are enormous – though not as massive as the consequences of a yes would have been.
The vote against independence means, above all, that the 307-year Union survives. It therefore means that the UK remains a G7 economic power and a member of the UN security council. It means Scotland will get more devolution. It means David Cameron will not be forced out. It means any Ed Miliband-led government elected next May has the chance to serve a full term, not find itself without a majority in 2016, when the Scots would have left. It means the pollsters got it right, Madrid will sleep a little more easily, and it means the banks will open on Friday morning as usual.
But the battlefield is still full of resonant lessons. The win, though close, was decisive. It looks like a 54%-46% or thereabouts. That’s not as good as it looked like being a couple of months ago. But it’s a lot more decisive than the recent polls had hinted. Second, it was women who saved the union. In the polls, men were decisively in favour of yes. The yes campaign was in some sense a guy thing. Men wanted to make a break with the Scotland they inhabit. Women didn’t. Third, this was to a significant degree a class vote too. Richer Scotland stuck with the union — so no did very well in a lot of traditonal SNP areas. Poorer Scotland, Labour Scotland, slipped towards yes, handing Glasgow, Dundee and North Lanarkshire to the independence camp. Gordon Brown stopped the slippage from becoming a rout, perhaps, but the questions for Labour — and for left politics more broadly — are profound.
For Scots, the no vote means relief for some, despair for others, both on the grand scale. For those who dreamed that a yes vote would take Scots on a journey to a land of milk, oil and honey, the mood this morning will be grim. Something that thousands of Scots wanted to be wonderful or merely just to witness has disappeared. The anticlimax will be cruel and crushing. For others, the majority, there will be thankfulness above all but uneasiness too. Thursday’s vote exposed a Scotland divided down the middle and against itself. Healing that hurt will not be easy or quick. It’s time to put away all flags.
The immediate political question now suddenly moves to London. Gordon Brown promised last week that work will start on Friday on drawing up the terms of a new devolution settlement. That may be a promise too far after the red-eyed adrenalin-pumping exhaustion of the past few days. But the deal needs to be on the table by the end of next month. It will not be easy to reconcile all the interests – Scots, English, Welsh, Northern Irish and local. But it is an epochal opportunity. The plan, like the banks, is too big to fail.
Alex Salmond and the SNP are not going anywhere. They will still govern Scotland until 2016. There will be speculation about Salmond’s position, and the SNP will need to decide whether to run in 2016 on a second referendum pledge. More immediately, the SNP will have to decide whether to go all-out win to more Westminster seats in the 2015 general election, in order to hold the next government’s feet to the fire over the promised devo-max settlement. Independence campaigners will feel gutted this morning. But they came within a whisker of ending the United Kingdom on Thursday. One day, perhaps soon, they will surely be back.
(Artículo de Martin Kettle, publicado en "The Guardian" el 19 de septiembre de 2014)
3 comentarios:
Efectivamente la democracia tendría que ser sinónima de transparencia, participación y de que se cumplan las leyes. Desgraciadamente en este país, se sigue pensando que acceder a un cargo público, significa tener absoluta impunidad para hacer y deshacer según le convenga al político que ostenta el cargo. Es obvio que si esto se da con tanta frecuencia es porque una buena parte de los que deberían denunciar cierto tipo de irregularidades, no lo hacen, bien sea porque sacan un beneficio propio, bien sea porque consideran que todo está perdido antes de empezar y deciden ser testigos pasivos de lo que acontece. Sin embargo, no se dan cuenta que no actuar, ya es actuar, no denunciar las cosas cuando se sabe que están mal hechas, ya implica complicidad con las irregularidades que se cometen. Ser ciudadano honrado requiere implicarse en política y denunciar lo que se hace mal. Porque la política no es un coto privado de nadie, la política significa participación, transparencia y sobre todo velar siempre por los intereses generales y no por el interés privado. Vosotros sois un ejemplo de democracia y de compromiso ciudadano y quien diga lo contrario, esconde intereses de otro tipo que distan mucho de ser los generales. No hay agradecimiento posible a tanta generosidad mostrada por vuestra parte, como es el mero hecho de dedicar tiempo a los intereses generales. Gracias
Frente a la pasividad de la mayoría, no exenta de queja tertuliana, 1900 notas es un dato incontestable de que hay camino por recorrer y un aldabonazo a nuestras conciencias dormidas.
Desde la depresión o desde el individualismo más cerril o desde la impotencia, cualquier excusa nos sirve a muchos para no implicarnos. Frente a tanto silencio, se alza vuestra voz, siempre reflexiva y comprometida con los valores constitucionales que garantizan nuestra convivencia. Y a ello os venís dedicando con un compromiso, una valentía, una constancia y una generosidad que queda bien testimoniada en estas 1900 notas. Vuestro trillar sin tregua, es ejemplo de que sí es posible contribuir a la regeneración aunque el camino ni esté hecho ni sea fácil de andar. Los versos de Machado siempre presentes.
1.900 notas son muchas horas de dedicación, esfuerzo y reflexión continuada. Vuestra siembra germinará hasta en la roca. Gracias.
Una y 1900 veces más, GRACIAS por tanto compromiso, dedicación y esfuerzo desinteresado.
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