Like the battle of Waterloo, the battle for Scotland was a damn close-run thing. The effects of Thursday’s no vote are enormous – though not as massive as the consequences of a yes would have been.
The vote against independence means, above all, that the 307-year Union survives. It therefore means that the UK remains a G7 economic power and a member of the UN security council. It means Scotland will get more devolution. It means David Cameron will not be forced out. It means any Ed Miliband-led government elected next May has the chance to serve a full term, not find itself without a majority in 2016, when the Scots would have left. It means the pollsters got it right, Madrid will sleep a little more easily, and it means the banks will open on Friday morning as usual.
But the battlefield is still full of resonant lessons. The win, though close, was decisive. It looks like a 54%-46% or thereabouts. That’s not as good as it looked like being a couple of months ago. But it’s a lot more decisive than the recent polls had hinted. Second, it was women who saved the union. In the polls, men were decisively in favour of yes. The yes campaign was in some sense a guy thing. Men wanted to make a break with the Scotland they inhabit. Women didn’t. Third, this was to a significant degree a class vote too. Richer Scotland stuck with the union — so no did very well in a lot of traditonal SNP areas. Poorer Scotland, Labour Scotland, slipped towards yes, handing Glasgow, Dundee and North Lanarkshire to the independence camp. Gordon Brown stopped the slippage from becoming a rout, perhaps, but the questions for Labour — and for left politics more broadly — are profound.
For Scots, the no vote means relief for some, despair for others, both on the grand scale. For those who dreamed that a yes vote would take Scots on a journey to a land of milk, oil and honey, the mood this morning will be grim. Something that thousands of Scots wanted to be wonderful or merely just to witness has disappeared. The anticlimax will be cruel and crushing. For others, the majority, there will be thankfulness above all but uneasiness too. Thursday’s vote exposed a Scotland divided down the middle and against itself. Healing that hurt will not be easy or quick. It’s time to put away all flags.
The immediate political question now suddenly moves to London. Gordon Brown promised last week that work will start on Friday on drawing up the terms of a new devolution settlement. That may be a promise too far after the red-eyed adrenalin-pumping exhaustion of the past few days. But the deal needs to be on the table by the end of next month. It will not be easy to reconcile all the interests – Scots, English, Welsh, Northern Irish and local. But it is an epochal opportunity. The plan, like the banks, is too big to fail.
Alex Salmond and the SNP are not going anywhere. They will still govern Scotland until 2016. There will be speculation about Salmond’s position, and the SNP will need to decide whether to run in 2016 on a second referendum pledge. More immediately, the SNP will have to decide whether to go all-out win to more Westminster seats in the 2015 general election, in order to hold the next government’s feet to the fire over the promised devo-max settlement. Independence campaigners will feel gutted this morning. But they came within a whisker of ending the United Kingdom on Thursday. One day, perhaps soon, they will surely be back.
(Artículo de Martin Kettle, publicado en "The Guardian" el 19 de septiembre de 2014)
7 comentarios:
Me parece un resultado lógico, pero acaso se desconoce la realidad precisa del número real de plazas que no se incluyen en la Oferta, pese a ser necesarias.
Quizás en el expediente que deben remitirnos para preparar la demanda podamos conocer el número real de plazas disponibles ¿no?
Dudo que ese dato figure en el expediente.
Ahora es Comisiones Obreras la que manda un mensaje a todos los empleados públicos de la DGA para exponer sus razones sobre la Oferta de Empleo Público, y es gracioso que una gran parte de ellos sea la crítica a dos miembros de la Asociación que desempeñaron responsabilidades en la Dirección General de la Función Pública, como si el haber trabajado unos años en dicha área les hubiera inhabilitado para hablar el resto de su vida en los temas de administración y función pública.
Por el contrario, el hecho de haber promovido esta Asociación es muy elocuente justamente en el sentido contrario. Habla del compromiso con la organización en la que se trabaja y con la consideración de lo que es y para qué está la función pública.
Sería deseable olvidarse de las referencias personales, ya que desde la Asociación nunca se ha hablado de personas sino de normas y principios, y exponer razones y argumentos.
Por último, si la Asociación se equivoca, en opinión de Comisiones Obreras, será porque también tiene derecho a equivocarse, derecho que Comisiones ha pretendido negar en el proceso judicial, tratando de impedir la tramitación del recurso.
Esa sí que es una equivocación grave, pretender excluir del debate jurídico a quien, según su propio letrado, persigue principios y fines suscribibles por todos.
Los nuevos nombramientos ponen los pelos de punta.
Algunos, no todos. Pero son suficientes para rebajar cualquier dosis de optimismo.
Observo que los datos de la encuesta son abrumadores (94,1%) sobre 32 votos, ¿esto quiere decir que han votado solo los miembros de la Junta Directiva y algún afiliado?.
Me parece que con estos datos, no habrá que tener muy en cuenta la opinión de que la Oferta de Empleo Público es manifiestamente insuficiente, más bien todo lo contrario.
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